Great write up.

Correlation is not causation – what was so different about the one time in history when the yield curve did not accurately reflect the next recession?

Also – in the past: the US economy dwarfed all others. It was bigger than the second, third and fourth largest economies combined. Ergo a recession there would result in a global downturn.

In 2019, there are other very large economies – BRICs, MINTS and EU to mention a few. Would their yield curves also not matter?